Even as Oracle Corp. and Google Inc. prepare to vilify each other as they lock horns over whether Google has committed patents and copyright infringement through alleged "unlawful" usage of Java technology in Google's Android platform, the issue is already making two other companies smile – Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.
How Apple stands to gain
According to Gartner, smartphones based on Google's Android platform has witnessed massive surge in popularity - in the second quarter of 2010, Android's share of the smartphone market jumped to 17.2 percent from 1.8 percent in the year ago period. In the process, Google overtook Apple and was third behind Symbian (used in Nokia smartphones) and BlackBerry OS (developed by Research In Motion).
Android smartphones have also made vendors like HTC and Samsung close their ranks against the likes of Nokia, RIM and Apple.
According to International Data Corp. (IDC), despite a slew of smartphones running on new mobile operating systems (OS) like Research In Motion's (RIM) BlackBerry 6, Symbian 3 and Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 set to hit the market soon, Google's Android-based smartphones will dominate the market.
IDC said four of top ten Android-based smartphone vendors recorded year-on-year growth rate upwards of 100 percent in the second quarter and the growing presence of Android-based smartphone suppliers like HTC have helped trigger greater consumer interest in "smartphones in general and Android devices in particular."
Though Nokia, RIM and Apple are the top three smartphone makers in the world, Android-based smartphone vendors like HTC and Samsung are quickly closing the ranks, especially with Apple. According to IDC data, HTC controlled 7.6 percent of the smartphone market in the June quarter, up from 5 percent last year, while Samsung controls 4.8 percent of the smartphone market, up from 2.6 percent in the year ago period.
In comparison, Apple controlled 13.3 percent market share in the same period.
But HTC and Samsung are not the only smartphone makers that use Android platform. Smartphones made by Motorola Inc. and Sony Ericsson are also based on Android platform. Motorola's Droid and Droid X as well as Sony Ericsson's Xperia X10 smartphones have done extremely well.
In other words, including Motorola and Sony Ericsson, vendors of Android-based smartphones already have a bigger market share than Apple.
Oracle, in its lawsuit, has asked for unspecified damages and also said that any software found in violation of Oracle's copyrights "be impounded and destroyed."
In other words, if a judgment is passed in Oracle's favor, Android-based smartphones will be taken off the shelves, at least till Google and Oracle comes to a settlement over license fees, and allow Apple's iPhone to increase the market share gap vis-a-vis Android smartphones.
How Microsoft stands to gain
While Apple is expected to gain only in terms of iPhone sales, Microsoft will gain in two ways. They are as follows:
One Oracle's lawsuit may bring back Windows Mobile platform-based smartphones in popular demand. Windows Mobile-based smartphones, such as HTC HD2, Samsung Omnia II, are doing quite well in terms of sales but their popularity has been overshadowed by Android-based smartphones.
Moreover, Microsoft has also launched its own range of smartphones – Kin One and Kin Two – whose core software is similar (but not identical) to the new Windows Phone 7 platform. However, the smartphones, which targeted social networking teens, failed in the market, forcing Microsoft to pull the devices off the shelves within two months of their debut.
But, undaunted, Microsoft is gearing up once again to launch new smartphones based on Windows Phone 7.
Hence, any attack by Oracle on Google, which is likely to dampen sales of Android-based smartphones, will possibly renew interest in smartphones that run on the mobile platform developed by Microsoft.
Two The uncertainty of the outcome of the lawsuit is likely to drive developers away from Java language to No.1 Java rival - Microsoft's very own .Net. Ironically, Microsoft developed its own Java-like C# language .Net after it was sued by Sun over alleged Java patents in 1997. Microsoft had to shell out over $1 billion to Sun to settle its claims.
