Since the iPad is the new kid on the block, let's imagine it as the hunter. What technology will the iPad kill off?
Apple's iPad has been generating plenty of chatter since it was previewed late last month. Much of the tech press was already in love with it before Apple even confirmed that it existed, and despite a certain amount of backlash , that love affair has continued, if only from afar.
But other tech players aren't so besotted, and the iPad might end up a poisoned love letter to the rest of the industry. For much of the life of the iPhone -- the iPad's grandparent, if you will -- every time a new smartphone comes out, it's been dubbed an "iPhone killer." Nobody's succeeded yet, but maybe someday, right? And since the iPad is the new kid on the block, let's imagine it as the hunter. What will the iPad kill? Well, potentially, quite a few things.
The Kindle
The iPad is interesting to people because it isn't exactly like any other product out there. But if you had to choose one thing it was closest to, it would probably be Amazon's Kindle: they're about the same size, and can do some of the same things. The iPad has a color screen and vastly more functionality, but it costs more up front, and you have to pay for Internet access.
The one area where the two readers will really go head to head will be in e-books. At the moment, it seems that Amazon's will be cheaper, and some think that the E Ink the Kindle uses is easier on the eyes than a backlit screen like the iPad's. But just the looming presence of the iPad in the market has already caused a tussle between Amazon and Macmillan, and so more disruptions to Amazon's Kindle business model might be looming.
Tablet PCs
The Tablet PC was a concept launched with some fanfare by Microsoft at the beginning of the last decade that promptly went nowhere. The idea was to put a full-scale Windows operating system onto a device in a tablet form factor, though most if not all included foldaway full-sized keyboards. But one of the basic problems was that a user interface like Windows that was designed to be used with a keyboard and mouse just didn't translate well to a tablet environment -- which is why Apple is betting that its adapted iPhone OS will succeed where Microsoft failed. Meanwhile, in anticipation of Apple's moves, Microsoft and HP trotted out the Tablet PC concept again, to little acclaim.
Flash
Apple seems determined to leave Adobe's Flash runtime behind in its newer offerings, deriding it as buggy and the culprit behind most of the crashes on Apple's desktop machines. When the iPhone came out with Flash conspicuously absent, people wondered how Internet users would get by without it. Well, the biggest hurdle was crossed once YouTube started making videos available to non-Flash browsers; rumor has it that Hulu is planning to follow suit.
And now Apple has teamed up with Google to promote the HTML 5 standard, which will allow video to be embedded without relying on a vendor offering like Flash. If the iPad can prove to users that the Web works fine without Flash, that could be devastating for Adobe.
Java
Apple isn't just hostile towards Flash as such; the company is determined to keep all languages that run in a separate runtime off of its iPhone OS devices. That includes Java, the increasingly long in the tooth language recently acquired along with Sun by Oracle. There's a huge developer base for Java, and it's an extremely important language for server-side development -- but the hopes that it would really run anywhere, expressed in part with the existence of the Java ME platform, have never really panned out. Java developers went into a bit of a tizzy as it became clear that Java would never be allowed onto the iPhone; now that the iPad has came along, they seem to have reached a point of sullen acceptance. Developers can always leverage their Java skills by using code converters like XMLVM to turn Java into Objective C, but it seems unlikely that new developers looking to get into iPad development will go down this path.
AT&T's Network
AT&T has always been the weak link in Apple's U.S. iPhone juggernaut, with spotty service enraging users who expect to take full advantage of their phones' data capabilities. But AT&T does have one big advantage: its network is compatible with the GSM standard used worldwide, leaving Apple with the choice of either manufacturing a U.S.-only device for Verizon's network or sticking with the devil they know. Many thought Apple would go the former route for the iPad, but instead it too is an AT&T-only device. It's something of a coup for the wireless company -- though users won't be tied into a lucrative two-year contract as they will be with the iPhone. AT&T is beefing up its network in preparation -- but if the iPad is popular enough and data demand once again defeats AT&T's capabilities, then the company's reputation could be fatally shot.
Standalone Chip Manufacturers
One of the interesting side notes of the iPad presentation was the discussion of the processor at its heart: an Apple-branded chip, the brainchild of the PA Semiconductor team acquired in 2008. Of course, Apple isn't exactly whipping these things up from scratch in Cupertino; it's based on the well-established ARM architecture, and will be manufactured by Samsung. But just the idea of a computer company designing its own chip architecture in-house has to make various chip companies shake in their boots a little bit.
The Desktop Metaphor
Apple is more or less responsible for popularizing the metaphor that virtually every computer uses for data management: a version, albeit many layers abstracted, of a physical desktop, with data contained in "files" that live in "folders," and the entire filing system available for the user to peruse. But the iPhone OS hides the filesystem entirely away from the user, with data being accessible only from within applications. Steven Frank and John Gruber think this heralds an entirely new computing paradigm, when the stress (and power) of data management will be entirely out of user hands. If that's so, it will take longtime computer users a while to get used to -- but it may be easier for new users to grasp from the get-go.
Apple's Do-No-Wrong Reputation
Remember the Mac cube? Beautiful, elegant, highly praised by Apple's team and by the press when it came out -- and it promptly flopped. It's a good reminder that Apple doesn't always have its fingers on the pulse of consumer desires.
Apple's been going from strength to strength ever since the release of the iPod, but it may be due for a comeuppance. After all, the iPod and iPhone took over recognizable consumer niches -- the former a Walkman for the digital age, the latter like your phone, but so much better -- while the iPad is something in a whole new category. And considering all the hype that led up to its introduction, an iPad flop -- or even just a so-so success -- could put egg on Apple's face.
